Semester Wrap-up

I have had so much fun reading about technology forecasting even though I have been somewhat remiss in posting.

However this topic really interests me though and so I am thinking that I will continue my readings (and eventual postings) past the scope of this assignment. So if you feel the same, maybe you'll want to stop by once in a while. :)

This assignment has taught me several things:

1. A better understanding of Blogger. Having only used LiveJournal before, it was really fun deciphering the ins and outs of this platform.

2. I loathe CAPTCHAs.  They're just so gosh darn difficult to decipher. However they are there to prevent bots. Thanks go out to the Spam Champ who so thoroughly described the spam situation.

Finally, I enjoyed reading all of your blogs Best of luck with your future endeavors!

- Samantha

Further Reading

Are you interested in reading further about technology predictions?

 If so, technological forecasting or technology forecasting are terms you might want to include in your search.

Burke (2009) provides some resources to analyze trends.

•  Cites & Insights.  The web address is actually http://citesandinsights.info. It's nothing fancy. But you can definitely see the trends in technology just from browsing the table of contents from past issues. 
•  LITA's Top Technology Trends blog. http://litablog.org/category/top-technology-trends/ 
• LISnews - http://lisnews.org

Conclusion

In my very first post, I worried that our creativity had became stagnant and that we were left simply making increasingly smaller iterations of the same technology.  However, I was so quick to discount the  creativity and imagination present in information science professionals and scientists. I completely neglected to take into account the work of science fiction writers, who dream up the seemingly impossible, and allow us, the reader, to interact with the idea of this technology which may exist, maybe not now, but in 10, 50, or even 100 years.

As I mentioned in a previous post, it's important to factor human beings into this technological forecasting equation. New technology does not exist in a vacuum. In some cases, humans can serve as the weaker link - exploiting X or stealing Y, using said new technology. In this regard, science fiction presents said cautionary tale intermingled with the proposition of these wondrous innovations that seemingly highlight the good qualities of human beings - creativity, industriousness, etc.  I think of the common theme that human beings, in science fiction, succeed in the face of adversity (e.g. alien invasion, zombie apocalypse, etc.) purely because they are human.  Whether that's an example of misguided sense of self-importance or a testimony to the resilience of humans - I'll leave it for you to decide.

But I personally would like to believe that humans will continue to use language via scholarly communication or even science fiction novels to continue to innovate. We can only hope that these innovations will ultimately be beneficial, avoiding the futuristic dystopia present in so many science fiction novels.

Two Sides of the Technological Forecasting Coin

There are two sides to a coin. Technological forecasting is the same. You have your optimists and your doomsayers.

Manley reflects, in a tongue in cheek manner, on the history of libraries from a 2025 perspective. He reflects on the supposed failed prophecies that predicted the doom of libraries due to Google or the e-book.  But in the same breath, Manley (2012) presents his own dire prediction that "the written word was starting to diminish in importance in the telling of stories by the year 2015"(p. 67).  He mentions the advent of "mash-ups", an e-book on steroids, which have integrated video and audio and readers can choose how the story progresses - "the mash-up was part novel, part video game".

Manley (2012) further describes the division between "w-books (word books)" (p.67), and these mash-ups. Manley describes that the situation was dire - librarians apparently milling about, haunting their dusty bookshelves, waiting for aging patrons, who were uncomfortable with these newer technologies, to visit. But the crisis was averted when the "3-D book-experience room" was invented.  Manley describes how this technology that transforms a paper book into a "3-D holographic interactive experience" but because of the cost of said technology - libraries once again have a purpose.

The library saving grace of this holograph generating room reminds me of Michael Kim's post on 3D printers, as libraries would be able to absorb the cost of technology that might be too expensive for individuals to buy for their home. Thus becoming a rejuvenated place in the community.

I fully realize and can appreciate the sardonic nature of Manley's A Short History of Libraries, 2000 to 2025.  But I think it's worth noting that some of his "predictions" are extremely unrealistic.  I doubt libraries would be these stagnant places - solely relying on paper and glue books. Even now, e-books are becoming a more common component of library collections.  It seems farfetched to imagine that these holographic images would be generated from paperback. Again, I do understand that Manley is making a point that paper books will basically still have a role, 12 years from now, in libraries. But I would like to point out that it would make more sense for e-books to be generated into holographs just from a technological standpoint, as it seems like a more straightforward process.

This is what I love about technological forecasting. It's imagining these technologies that are proposed, and evaluating their possibility based on your knowledge base. Since I'm a technological layman, I can only make broad generalizations based on my understanding of technology. But a scientist reading this article might have a totally different interaction with this proposed technology.

Bosseau and Martin (1995) provide a less sardonic reply to those concerned that blank new technology spells the end of X, Y, or Z.  History is full of examples where television and radio, movies and cable coexist.  So there is hope that future technologies will not make books or libraries for that matter redundant.

But from the year 1995, Bosseau and Martin say it best:

Devoting full-time budgets solely to the promise of technology was logical in the early days of the space program. In that case, however, there were no yesterdays. As managers responsible for bringing deliverables in the form of quality controlled information sources to faculty and students, it is incumbent upon libraries to optimize services on the basis of what works best for the end users. To supply only that which is in a particular format is a mistake -- at least as long as it takes many formats to meet the comprehensive needs of our users.  (p. 302)

References

Bosseau, D. L., & Martin, S. K. (1995). Deciphering the character of order.

Journal of Academic Librarianship, 21(4), 301-302.

Manley, W. (2012). The Manley arts: A short history of libraries, 2000 to

2025.Booklist, 108 (17), 67.

Quick Reaction and Reading Recommendation - "Knowbot explorations in similarity space"

http://old.cni.org/pub/lita/think/Halbert.html

I think this imagining of the year 2010 is amazing. Halbert describes a wonderfully imaginative way to search for information.

Results of a search are translated into a visual representation. Tamara prefers the use of color and height to represent relevance.  Using a joystick, she navigates through a database planet, the red mountains representing the most relevant results, and blue valleys, the least.

I think this technology would be a great, interactive way to search for materials. Younger students might actually want to search databases than rely on Google.

I have never experienced Second Life first hand, but from my understanding of it, I can see a connection between the database that Halbert describes and Second Life.

Cost would probably be an issue, but I would most assuredly place it in the "want category".

Halbert, M. (1992). Knowbot explorations in similarity space. In R. Miller &

M. Wolf (Eds.), Thinking robots, an aware Internet, and cyberpunk librarians: The 1992 LITA president's program presentations. Retrieved from http://old.coni.org/pub/lita/think/Halbert.html

Mr. D - Siri-1992-style?

In A Day in the Life of Mr. D,  Morgan (1992) describes a world with Mr. D, a "machine that was the size of a bread box with peripheral input-out devices ranging in size from a lapel pin to a chalkboard."

Morgan describes Mr. D as a librarian. Mr. D  performs a myriad of tasks - analyzing numbers and figures, finding information, and anticipating the needs of his patrons.

Mr. D can even allow you to "feel" fabrics through the screen with the help of a glove.  This sounds so futuristic but think again... ("touch"screens)

Mr. D in essence is Siri, except a little more advanced and refined. But I agree with Morgan when he further states that "Mr. D isn't really a librarian; he is merely a tool created by knowledge engineers" . I think it would be more apt to describe Mr. D as an omniscient personal assistant with strong research skills.

 I think it is hard to envision Siri as a librarian - even though you can ask for definitions or information.   But I do think that Siri or Mr. D or similar programs/AI will not affect the jobs of human librarians to a great extent as they follow a set of parameters and thus are unable to understand the idiosyncrasies of human beings. Morgan asserts that only human librarians have the ability to understand the intricacies and nuances of human behavior.  An example of this is how Babelfish can translate a phrase into a different language and while it technically will be correct, oftentimes you can tell that it is from a translation application.

Dr. D or Siri can tell you what's the definition of a railway-share, but when it comes to analyzing the work - I think that they will fall short for quite a while. But when that eventually happens - it will be the equivalent of SparkNotes on steroids. I actually hope that said developments are excluded in any future innovations. Using a calculator to tally a sum is fine, but using a computer to provide the meaning to a poem or other literary work, seems wrong.  

References 

Morgan,  E.L. (1992). A day in the life of Mr. D.  In R. Miller &

M. Wolf (Eds.),  Thinking robots, an aware Internet,and cyberpunk librarians: The 1992 LITA president's program presentations. Retrieved from http://old.cni.org/pub/lita/think/Morgan.html

Technology Forecasting Resource

I personally enjoy reading about past predictions and comparing them to current technology. If you also enjoy such material, I suggest you check out Thinking Robots, an Aware Internet, and Cyberpunk Librarians. 

I'll be highlighting a couple of articles later but feel free to peruse the 1992 technological forecasting goodness for yourself. 

Reaction to "Thinking longer term about technology: Is there value in science fiction-inspired approaches to constructing futures?"

Miller and Bennett (2008) touch on many of the philosophies I wanted to express in this blog. They make some very interesting points that resonate with me. They also try to make some connections that are a little unusual.

Miller and Bennett were spurred to write their article after Christine Peterson of the Foresight Institute basically communicated that when using resources (like science fiction novels) to predict technological trends that it was important to separate the human component of the novel and focus solely on the technology presented.

Miller and Bennett disagree. Technology does not exist independently of humans. Technology is what humans make of it. The article then goes on to support including the human element. …There was a commercial about that, wasn’t there?

Science fiction writers provide the lateral thinking that can be used to create these new technologies – not limited by those pesky rules of science.

They even suggest the use of embedded fiction writers in laboratories can be beneficial to spark innovations among scientists (Miller & Bennett, 2008, p. 604).

There are a lot of interesting insights. However. There are some arguments, I don’t get and/or agree with. Apparently fanfiction provides a vehicle for people (who are not science fiction writers) to interact with the ideas of future technology. I can sort of see their point… maybe. They do try to limit this fanfiction to those inspired by “hard science fiction” (Miller & Bennett, 2008, p.599). I would personally like a list of these “hard science fiction” works that inspired the resulting fanfiction. I would also love to see samples of this writing. Why? This entire argument is basically based on the entries that exist on fanfiction.net. If you’re even remotely involved in a fandom – you might see why this is entertaining.

Another questionable assertion is that Mr. Michael Crichton has almost singlehandedly “damaged the positive relationships that have long bonded science fiction writers with the scientists and scientific fields they write about” (Miller & Bennett, 2008, p. 605). I’m not a scientist so I guess it would be hard for me to have an opinion about this, but it just seems really odd. Did they distribute a poll on a listserv?

Are you a scientist? Yes or No.

Do you hate Michael Crichton? Yes or No

Did they do a raise of hands at a conference of some sort?

I digress. It’s an interesting article. It makes some good points, and it also has some random, but entertaining moments.

Is there any technology that you've read about in a science fiction novel or seen in a science fiction movie that you're really excited to see in reality? Feel free to share your wish list below. :)

References

Miller, C. A., & Bennett, I. (2008). Thinking longer term about technology: Is

there value in science fiction-inspired approaches to constructing futures? Science and Public Policy, 35(8), 597-606.

Open Source Prezi

My attempt to explain the concept of Open Source in an entertaining manner is embedded below. You may ask what this has to do with trends in technology... but I think it's very important from a cost perspective to gain some semblance of control over rising costs. This presentation focuses mainly on open source software and the like. But controlling costs of databases and journals will be important in order to allow libraries to acquire the newer technologies.

Behind the Scenes - Technology Chronology

Some tasks are a labor of love.  I am somewhat fond of the final product. This project definitely made me appreciate technology.

You've got to start somewhere. Here I am starting the outline of the electrical cord that represents the timeline.

It takes some planning.

A lot of planning.

Here's a close up of the finished cord.

Sometimes I had companionship for my sewing.   Not the most convenient companionship, but companionship all the same :)

Technology Chronology

Technology Chronology

Libraries have been around since ancient times. The concept of the library has been relatively constant, in that a library is usually recognizable as a library although admittedly there have historically been different schools of thought as to its purpose.  The library's technology has not exhibited the same constancy, which is most assuredly beneficial. One can only imagine how difficult it would be to locate a scroll or scratch information onto a clay tablet. The following is a collection of events and/or objects that I deem to be of importance in shaping the technology in use by libraries today. In a fit of ironic fancy, I have decided to illustrate these events with stitchery, which takes some extra effort, thus making me appreciate these technological advances even more.

Punch Cards

“ The punched card was essentially a data-processing card through which holes were punched in columns that related to specific data or facts” (Black, 2007, p. 292). Notably used in 1936 at University of Texas Libraries, the system and organization laid groundwork for later computerization (Pace, 2009, p641).

Databases

Databases could technically be traced back to the punched cards, however the first word-based formats can be traced to the mid 1960’s as information in a variety of formats was translated to magnetic tape (Neufeld & Cornog, 1986, p.183).  “This evolution of commercially available database services continues today” (Griffiths & King, 2002, p.37). 

MARC

Proposed by the Library of Congress in the late1960's, MARC - Machine Readable Cataloging was adopted in the early 1970's by a majority of libraries. MARC provided a standard for libraries.  MARC was a key in “the transition from card to online catalogs” (Rayward, 2002, p.7).  MARC was key as it was compatible with later library management software (Guy, 2007, p.65). 

Microcomputer

By the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, computers decreased in physical size and there were improvements in speed (Tedd, 2007, p.309). Advances in microcomputers allowed for the implementation of turnkey library management software (Guy, 2007, p.65).

ALS

An automated library system is a “database to house and retrieve a library’s holdings” (Kinner & Rigda, 2009, p. 401). These systems cannot be considered advanced from today’s perspective but they were an important stepping stone (Kinner & Rigda, 2007). “The period from the late 1970’s to early 1980’s was marked by rapid growth in the number of libraries automating their operations” (Borgman, 1997, p. 222).  

OPAC

Online Public Access Catalog, an almost revolutionary concept that the public should be able to access a library's catalog (Guy, 2007, p.67). Early OPACs provided the ability to search by title, class number, or author (Black, 2007, p.318). The first OPACs were most effective when searching for a known item (Tedd, 2007, p.310).

CD-ROM

The 1980’s saw the introduction of CD-ROMs (Rayward, 2002, p. 13). CD-ROMs were adopted as “a carrier for resources and for library catalogs” (McCallum, 2003, p. 4).  CD-ROMs are still used today as carriers for computer programs. 

ILS

Integrated library systems emerged as a merger of automated library systems and the online public access catalog. The integrated library system was the answer for librarians who felt that they had lost control over their collections with the adoption of automated library systems (Kinner & Rigda, 2009, p. 403).  An important event in library technology, it was somewhat tarnished with the introduction and subsequent popularity of GUI and the Internet  (Pace, 2009, p.642).

GUI

An important development, GUI, remodeled the appearance of the (micro)computer with rip-roaring success as it is still utilized today (Pace, 2009, p. 642). GUI helped improve the standardization of OPAC interfaces in the early 1990's (McCallum, 2008, p.4).

Internet 

Although the Internet has existed in previous iterations, i.e. ARPANET,  it was only when the Internet or the World Wide Web emerged in the 1990’s, that there were “profound effects on electronic publishing” (Griffiths & King, 2002, p. 37).  Touted as the “most successful example” in searching and data exchange, the Internet (WWW) introduced new possibilities in scholarly communication, access of library materials, et cetera (Borgman, 1997, p. 230).

Wireless Internet

Wireless Internet allows the library to provide Internet access without being hindered by the number of workstations that are typically high in demand (Bertot, McClure, & Jaeger, 2008, p. 292). There is an increased need to implement Wi-Fi hotspots in libraries. As mobile devices become more prevalent, users expect to be able to access library websites or catalogs from their devices (Barnhart & Pierce, 2011, p.280). Wireless Internet facilitates this process.

Social Media

Social media in its various guises provides a new platform with which to interact with library users. Twitter in particular allows for transmission of information quickly and in real time (Aharony, 2010, p. 334). Information gathered from the use of social media can help libraries make decisions concerning the library - even decisions that involve adopting new technologies (King, 2012, p. 23).

From punched cards to social media, there have been many changes in technology over these years. In the process of researching important developments in library technology, I have a new awareness of the radical changes that have occurred. It was enlightening to realize that certain developments and technologies like the Internet (ARPANET) and automated library systems have been around longer than I previously thought. It was also interesting to see that certain technologies like integrated library systems have not experienced radical changes since their inception resulting in user dissatisfaction.  It will be exciting to see how the technology will continue to change in my lifetime.

References

Aharony, N. (2010). Twitter use in libraries: An exploratory analysis. Journal of Web Librarianship, 4(4), 333-350. doi:10.1080/19322909.2010.48776

Barnhart, F. D., & Pierce, J. E. (2011). Becoming mobile: Reference in the ubiquitous library. Journal of Library Administration, 51(3), 279-290.

Bertot, J., McClure, C. R., & Jaeger, P. T. (2008). The impacts of free public Internet access on public library patrons and communities. Library Quarterly, 78(3), 285-301.

Black, A. (2007). Mechanization in libraries and information retrieval: Punched cards and microfilm before the widespread adoption of computer technology in libraries. Library History, 23(4), 291-299. doi: 10.1179/174581607x254785

Borgman, C. L.  (1997).  From acting locally to thinking globally: A brief history of library automation.  The Library Quarterly, 67(3), 215-249.

Griffiths, J., & King, D. W. (2002). US information retrieval system: Evolution and evaluation (1945-1975).  IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, 24(3)  35-55.

Guy, F. (2007). Technological advances and information education 1982-2007: Some perspectives. Education for Information, 25(1), 63-72.

King, D. L.  (2012).  Social media. Library Technology Reports, 48(6), 23-27.

Kinner, L., & Rigda, C. (2009). The integrated library system: From daring to dinosaur? Journal of Library Administration, 49, 401-417. doi: 10.1080/01930820902832546

McCallum, S. (2003). 40 years of technology in libraries: A brief history of information technology, 1963/64-2003. IFLA. Retrieved from http://www.ifla.org/files/assets/information-technology/publications/40-years-of-its.pdf

Neufeld, M. L, & Conog, M. (1986). Database history: From dinosaurs to compact discs. Journal of the American Society for Information Science, 37(4), 183-190.

Pace, A. (2009). 21^st  century library systems. Journal of Library Administration,  49(6), 641-650. doi: 10.1080/01930820903238834

Rayward, W. B. (2002).  A history of computer applications in libraries: Prolegomena. IEEE Annals of the History of Computing, 24(2) 4-15.

Tedd, L. A. (2007). Library management systems in the UK: 1960s – 1980s. Library History, 23(4), 301-316. doi: 10.1179/174581607x254794