Two Sides of the Technological Forecasting Coin

There are two sides to a coin. Technological forecasting is the same. You have your optimists and your doomsayers.

Manley reflects, in a tongue in cheek manner, on the history of libraries from a 2025 perspective. He reflects on the supposed failed prophecies that predicted the doom of libraries due to Google or the e-book.  But in the same breath, Manley (2012) presents his own dire prediction that "the written word was starting to diminish in importance in the telling of stories by the year 2015"(p. 67).  He mentions the advent of "mash-ups", an e-book on steroids, which have integrated video and audio and readers can choose how the story progresses - "the mash-up was part novel, part video game".

Manley (2012) further describes the division between "w-books (word books)" (p.67), and these mash-ups. Manley describes that the situation was dire - librarians apparently milling about, haunting their dusty bookshelves, waiting for aging patrons, who were uncomfortable with these newer technologies, to visit. But the crisis was averted when the "3-D book-experience room" was invented.  Manley describes how this technology that transforms a paper book into a "3-D holographic interactive experience" but because of the cost of said technology - libraries once again have a purpose.

The library saving grace of this holograph generating room reminds me of Michael Kim's post on 3D printers, as libraries would be able to absorb the cost of technology that might be too expensive for individuals to buy for their home. Thus becoming a rejuvenated place in the community.

I fully realize and can appreciate the sardonic nature of Manley's A Short History of Libraries, 2000 to 2025.  But I think it's worth noting that some of his "predictions" are extremely unrealistic.  I doubt libraries would be these stagnant places - solely relying on paper and glue books. Even now, e-books are becoming a more common component of library collections.  It seems farfetched to imagine that these holographic images would be generated from paperback. Again, I do understand that Manley is making a point that paper books will basically still have a role, 12 years from now, in libraries. But I would like to point out that it would make more sense for e-books to be generated into holographs just from a technological standpoint, as it seems like a more straightforward process.

This is what I love about technological forecasting. It's imagining these technologies that are proposed, and evaluating their possibility based on your knowledge base. Since I'm a technological layman, I can only make broad generalizations based on my understanding of technology. But a scientist reading this article might have a totally different interaction with this proposed technology.

Bosseau and Martin (1995) provide a less sardonic reply to those concerned that blank new technology spells the end of X, Y, or Z.  History is full of examples where television and radio, movies and cable coexist.  So there is hope that future technologies will not make books or libraries for that matter redundant.

But from the year 1995, Bosseau and Martin say it best:

Devoting full-time budgets solely to the promise of technology was logical in the early days of the space program. In that case, however, there were no yesterdays. As managers responsible for bringing deliverables in the form of quality controlled information sources to faculty and students, it is incumbent upon libraries to optimize services on the basis of what works best for the end users. To supply only that which is in a particular format is a mistake -- at least as long as it takes many formats to meet the comprehensive needs of our users.  (p. 302)

References

Bosseau, D. L., & Martin, S. K. (1995). Deciphering the character of order.

Journal of Academic Librarianship, 21(4), 301-302.

Manley, W. (2012). The Manley arts: A short history of libraries, 2000 to

2025.Booklist, 108 (17), 67.