Promise of Technology

Semester Wrap-up

I have had so much fun reading about technology forecasting even though I have been somewhat remiss in posting.

However this topic really interests me though and so I am thinking that I will continue my readings (and eventual postings) past the scope of this assignment. So if you feel the same, maybe you'll want to stop by once in a while. :)

This assignment has taught me several things:

1. A better understanding of Blogger. Having only used LiveJournal before, it was really fun deciphering the ins and outs of this platform.

2. I loathe CAPTCHAs. They're just so gosh darn difficult to decipher. However they are there to prevent bots. Thanks go out to the Spam Champ who so thoroughly described the spam situation.

Finally, I enjoyed reading all of your blogs Best of luck with your future endeavors!

- Samantha

Conclusion

In my very first post, I worried that our creativity had became stagnant and that we were left simply making increasingly smaller iterations of the same technology. However, I was so quick to discount the creativity and imagination present in information science professionals and scientists. I completely neglected to take into account the work of science fiction writers, who dream up the seemingly impossible, and allow us, the reader, to interact with the idea of this technology which may exist, maybe not now, but in 10, 50, or even 100 years.

As I mentioned in a previous post, it's important to factor human beings into this technological forecasting equation. New technology does not exist in a vacuum. In some cases, humans can serve as the weaker link - exploiting X or stealing Y, using said new technology. In this regard, science fiction presents said cautionary tale intermingled with the proposition of these wondrous innovations that seemingly highlight the good qualities of human beings - creativity, industriousness, etc. I think of the common theme that human beings, in science fiction, succeed in the face of adversity (e.g. alien invasion, zombie apocalypse, etc.) purely because they are human. Whether that's an example of misguided sense of self-importance or a testimony to the resilience of humans - I'll leave it for you to decide.

But I personally would like to believe that humans will continue to use language via scholarly communication or even science fiction novels to continue to innovate. We can only hope that these innovations will ultimately be beneficial, avoiding the futuristic dystopia present in so many science fiction novels.

Two Sides of the Technological Forecasting Coin

There are two sides to a coin. Technological forecasting is the same. You have your optimists and your doomsayers.

Manley reflects, in a tongue in cheek manner, on the history of libraries from a 2025 perspective. He reflects on the supposed failed prophecies that predicted the doom of libraries due to Google or the e-book. But in the same breath, Manley (2012) presents his own dire prediction that "the written word was starting to diminish in importance in the telling of stories by the year 2015"(p. 67). He mentions the advent of "mash-ups", an e-book on steroids, which have integrated video and audio and readers can choose how the story progresses - "the mash-up was part novel, part video game".

Manley (2012) further describes the division between "w-books (word books)" (p.67), and these mash-ups. Manley describes that the situation was dire - librarians apparently milling about, haunting their dusty bookshelves, waiting for aging patrons, who were uncomfortable with these newer technologies, to visit. But the crisis was averted when the "3-D book-experience room" was invented. Manley describes how this technology that transforms a paper book into a "3-D holographic interactive experience" but because of the cost of said technology - libraries once again have a purpose.

The library saving grace of this holograph generating room reminds me of Michael Kim's post on 3D printers, as libraries would be able to absorb the cost of technology that might be too expensive for individuals to buy for their home. Thus becoming a rejuvenated place in the community.

I fully realize and can appreciate the sardonic nature of Manley's A Short History of Libraries, 2000 to 2025. But I think it's worth noting that some of his "predictions" are extremely unrealistic. I doubt libraries would be these stagnant places - solely relying on paper and glue books. Even now, e-books are becoming a more common component of library collections. It seems farfetched to imagine that these holographic images would be generated from paperback. Again, I do understand that Manley is making a point that paper books will basically still have a role, 12 years from now, in libraries. But I would like to point out that it would make more sense for e-books to be generated into holographs just from a technological standpoint, as it seems like a more straightforward process.

This is what I love about technological forecasting. It's imagining these technologies that are proposed, and evaluating their possibility based on your knowledge base. Since I'm a technological layman, I can only make broad generalizations based on my understanding of technology. But a scientist reading this article might have a totally different interaction with this proposed technology.

Bosseau and Martin (1995) provide a less sardonic reply to those concerned that blank new technology spells the end of X, Y, or Z. History is full of examples where television and radio, movies and cable coexist. So there is hope that future technologies will not make books or libraries for that matter redundant.

But from the year 1995, Bosseau and Martin say it best:

Devoting full-time budgets solely to the promise of technology was logical in the early days of the space program. In that case, however, there were no yesterdays. As managers responsible for bringing deliverables in the form of quality controlled information sources to faculty and students, it is incumbent upon libraries to optimize services on the basis of what works best for the end users. To supply only that which is in a particular format is a mistake -- at least as long as it takes many formats to meet the comprehensive needs of our users. (p. 302)

References

Bosseau, D. L., & Martin, S. K. (1995). Deciphering the character of order.

Journal of Academic Librarianship, 21(4), 301-302.

Manley, W. (2012). The Manley arts: A short history of libraries, 2000 to

2025.Booklist, 108 (17), 67.

Quick Reaction and Reading Recommendation - "Knowbot explorations in similarity space"

http://old.cni.org/pub/lita/think/Halbert.html

I think this imagining of the year 2010 is amazing. Halbert describes a wonderfully imaginative way to search for information.

Results of a search are translated into a visual representation. Tamara prefers the use of color and height to represent relevance. Using a joystick, she navigates through a database planet, the red mountains representing the most relevant results, and blue valleys, the least.

I think this technology would be a great, interactive way to search for materials. Younger students might actually want to search databases than rely on Google.

I have never experienced Second Life first hand, but from my understanding of it, I can see a connection between the database that Halbert describes and Second Life.

Cost would probably be an issue, but I would most assuredly place it in the "want category".

Halbert, M. (1992). Knowbot explorations in similarity space. In R. Miller &

M. Wolf (Eds.), Thinking robots, an aware Internet, and cyberpunk librarians: The 1992 LITA president's program presentations. Retrieved from http://old.coni.org/pub/lita/think/Halbert.html

Mr. D - Siri-1992-style?

In A Day in the Life of Mr. D, Morgan (1992) describes a world with Mr. D, a "machine that was the size of a bread box with peripheral input-out devices ranging in size from a lapel pin to a chalkboard."

Morgan describes Mr. D as a librarian. Mr. D performs a myriad of tasks - analyzing numbers and figures, finding information, and anticipating the needs of his patrons.

Mr. D can even allow you to "feel" fabrics through the screen with the help of a glove. This sounds so futuristic but think again... ("touch"screens)

Mr. D in essence is Siri, except a little more advanced and refined. But I agree with Morgan when he further states that "Mr. D isn't really a librarian; he is merely a tool created by knowledge engineers" . I think it would be more apt to describe Mr. D as an omniscient personal assistant with strong research skills.

I think it is hard to envision Siri as a librarian - even though you can ask for definitions or information. But I do think that Siri or Mr. D or similar programs/AI will not affect the jobs of human librarians to a great extent as they follow a set of parameters and thus are unable to understand the idiosyncrasies of human beings. Morgan asserts that only human librarians have the ability to understand the intricacies and nuances of human behavior. An example of this is how Babelfish can translate a phrase into a different language and while it technically will be correct, oftentimes you can tell that it is from a translation application.

Dr. D or Siri can tell you what's the definition of a railway-share, but when it comes to analyzing the work - I think that they will fall short for quite a while. But when that eventually happens - it will be the equivalent of SparkNotes on steroids. I actually hope that said developments are excluded in any future innovations. Using a calculator to tally a sum is fine, but using a computer to provide the meaning to a poem or other literary work, seems wrong.

References

Morgan, E.L. (1992). A day in the life of Mr. D. In R. Miller &

M. Wolf (Eds.), Thinking robots, an aware Internet,and cyberpunk librarians: The 1992 LITA president's program presentations. Retrieved from http://old.cni.org/pub/lita/think/Morgan.html

Technology Forecasting Resource

I personally enjoy reading about past predictions and comparing them to current technology. If you also enjoy such material, I suggest you check out Thinking Robots, an Aware Internet, and Cyberpunk Librarians.

I'll be highlighting a couple of articles later but feel free to peruse the 1992 technological forecasting goodness for yourself.